Climate change is fuelling extreme weather and displacement in key food-producing countries, posing a rising risk to the UK’s food supply, according to new analysis.
The report reveals that £3 billion worth of UK food imports – including staples like rice, tea and mangoes – come from the top 20 countries with the highest levels of climate-related displacement. All are rated as unprepared for climate change.
Pakistan, the UK’s second-largest rice supplier, is currently facing severe flooding, following a 2022 disaster that saw record rainfall, 1,700 deaths, millions displaced, and major crop losses.
In 2023, 1.2 million Pakistanis were internally displaced by extreme weather, second only to China, according to the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) report.
Recent floods in 2024 have killed over 300 people, with more heavy rainfall forecast. Scientists estimate this year’s monsoon rains were 15% more intense due to climate change.
The impact is already being felt in UK food prices. From 2022 to 2023, the average price of rice from Pakistan rose by 33%, as harvests were hit and supply chains disrupted.
“When floods and droughts force farmers overseas to leave their homes, they often head to cities, breaking apart rural communities and raising serious questions about who will grow the food we import,” said Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programme at the ECIU.
“Unless we reach net zero, climate threats to our food security will continue to worsen.”
Camilla Toulmin, senior associate at the International Institute for Environment and Development, warned that recent UK aid cuts risk weakening international partnerships and food system resilience:
“With more volatile food systems, our own food security is increasingly at risk.”
Currently, 15% of UK food imports (worth £8 billion) come from countries with low climate readiness. These include crops not suited to the UK climate. Without overseas farmers, access to these foods would be severely limited.
The UK contributes to international climate finance, supporting farmers in vulnerable countries like Pakistan through initiatives such as the Acumen Climate Action Pakistan Fund.
ECIU analysis shows UK finance has supported at least 348 climate adaptation projects across 111 countries, 84 of which supply food to UK supermarkets.
Professor Tobias Heidland of the Kiel Institute said: “Smart climate finance is an insurance policy. Helping farmers adapt will always be cheaper than dealing with the fallout of crises.”
Agritech to the Rescue
Innovation could help in several interconnected ways—both to safeguard UK food security and to strengthen resilience in climate-vulnerable supplier nations. Here’s how:
1. Climate-Resilient Crop Varieties
Breeding and deploying rice, tea, and fruit varieties that can withstand floods, droughts, salinity, and temperature extremes would help stabilise yields in key exporting countries. UK-funded research partnerships could accelerate the rollout of such varieties in places like Pakistan, reducing the risk of catastrophic crop losses after extreme weather events.
2. Precision Agriculture and Early Warning Systems
AI-powered satellite monitoring, weather modelling, and soil health diagnostics can give farmers advance notice of flooding or drought, allowing them to adjust planting schedules or protect crops. Precision irrigation systems could help them cope with water scarcity, while flood-resistant field drainage can reduce damage when rivers overflow.
3. Diversification of Supply Chains
On the trade side, technology can be used to map and diversify sourcing, ensuring that the UK isn’t overly dependent on one region for staples like rice. Blockchain-based traceability tools could make it easier to switch to alternative suppliers while maintaining quality and safety standards.
4. Strengthening Local Processing and Storage
Innovations in cold-chain logistics and modular food processing facilities can help farmers in vulnerable regions store and sell their produce even if extreme weather disrupts transport routes. This limits waste and keeps incomes stable.
5. Community-Led Adaptation Programmes
Digital platforms can connect smallholder farmers to micro-insurance schemes, mobile-based training, and direct-to-market sales channels. This helps them remain viable in rural areas rather than being forced to migrate to cities after disasters—addressing the “who will grow our food” challenge.
6. Smart Climate Finance Deployment
Leveraging fintech tools to monitor, evaluate, and direct climate finance in real time can make UK aid more impactful. This ensures funds quickly reach the most at-risk farmers for adaptation measures such as raised seed beds, water-harvesting systems, or storm-resistant storage units.
7. Research-Driven Bilateral Partnerships
Creating innovation clusters that link UK agri-tech companies with farmers and agronomists in vulnerable countries could fast-track solutions. For example, trialling British flood-resistant crop technology in Pakistan or developing shared digital platforms for market forecasting.
Ultimately innovation, whether technological, financial, or logistical—can act as a buffer between climate chaos and empty supermarket shelves. By pairing UK agricultural expertise with targeted support in climate-vulnerable supplier nations, we can protect overseas livelihoods and safeguard the diversity and stability of our own food supply.
